The price of Bitcoin is behind the multi-year high of $14,100, but five signs indicate that the real rise is only warming up the engines
A few days ago, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) dropped substantially from its annual high to $14,149. However, five signs indicate that the real rise is still only in its infancy.
The growing activity of „HODL,“ record-breaking fundamentals, low retail interest, the breakout over longer intervals and technical indicators suggest that a bigger bull run is about to hit the market.
Breakouts over longer intervals
Bitcoin has lost more than 6% from its local peak above $14,000, a level that has remained unchanged since 2017.
In the weekly and monthly charts it marked a clear breakout, with candles closing above $13,000 for the first time in almost three years.
As Cointelegraph has already pointed out, the monthly chart shows that Bitcoin is well above crucial moving averages. Technically, this means that the momentum is still intact, but a healthy pullback could prove useful.
Google activity and social media volume are still low
During the peak of a bull run, Google searches for the keyword „Bitcoin“ skyrocket as retail demand spills over into the asset. When market sentiment becomes euphoric, whales tend to collect profits, pushing the market down.
In recent months, despite Bitcoin’s strong bullish movement, activity on Google Trends has remained low. This indicates that few retail investors are looking for cryptocurrency information.
Moreover, according to data provided by The Tie, the monthly volume of Bitcoin tweets in October rose by only 7.8%. The lack of retail interest despite the arrival of multi-year highs indicates that Bitcoin Revolution may still be at an early stage of the bull market.
Technical indicators show that the rise is not overheated.
According to the Mayer Multiple, the historical price cycles recorded by Bitcoin suggest that the current BTC movement is not yet overheated.
The Mayer Multiple analyzes the price of Bitcoin based on its 200-day moving average, which evaluates its long-term trend. If the indicator is above 2.4, the increase is probably overheated and running out. In 2017, when BTC hit $20,000, the Mayer Multiple reached around 3.8.
As of November 3, the Mayer Multiple is around 1.45. This reading indicates that the movement is not overheated or overcrowded, despite the bullish trend that started in March, which took BTC from $3,600 to $13,350.
The hash rate is still close to its record high
In the autumn months, the northern regions of mainland China are affected by the rainy season. Leading mining companies using hydropower can access cheaper electricity, enabling them to mine Bitcoin more efficiently.
This year, at the end of the rainy season, there was a mass exodus of miners to northern China. As a result, the Bitcoin hash rate fell sharply in a short period of time.
Nevertheless, the average 30-day hash rate for this year shows that the Bitcoin hash rate is still close to its record high. Currently, it is at around 132 million terahash per second. In comparison, the hash rate was well below 100 million TH/s in January.
HODL activity is still strong
According to the HODL wave indicator, which assesses the trend of long-term Bitcoin owners, more and more investors are retaining BTC for longer periods.
HODL activity has increased since March, when the price of BTC fell briefly below $3,600. Since then, investors have been steadily accumulating BTC.
The growth of HODL in BTC along with solid fundamentals, a favourable technical structure over extended ranges and positive technical indicators have strengthened general market sentiment, which could possibly trigger an even bigger rise for Bitcoin.